Is the race really driving you crazy? You are not alone
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Polling and Politics in a Superblowout Final Day of the Nov. 1 Election
I like to vote on Election Day. A friend voted at the Met museum one day and she said the line was longer than usual. Mostly women. I’m predicting a blowout Kamala Harris victory — in Manhattan.
What will likely be huge turnout in New York won’t have any impact on the outcome since both sides knew from the beginning that New York was not a state that anyone needed to campaign in. But it would be nice if the margin for Kamala Harris in Donald Trump’s hometown was a super blowout.
The interviewer asked “Bret:” On the other hand, who knows? The polls were too favorable to Democrats in 2016 and 2020. They were too confident in the Republicans. I do not know what to think about the Selzer poll in Iowa that indicates that Harris won a state Trump won by eight points in 2020. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have an early night with a clear winner on Tuesday. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re stuck in recount and lawsuit hell for days or even weeks on end, either.
Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation on Friday, Nov. 1, with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer and Republican pollster, and Nate Silver, the author of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” and the newsletter Silver Bulletin, to discuss polling and politics in the final days of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Their conversation has been edited for clarity and length.
Frank Bruni: Kristen, Nate, thank you for joining me. It seems that nobody really knows what’s going to happen on Election Day. Democrats fret — that’s their nature. MAGA Republicans strut, emulating their idol. And you two? I want to check on your gut now, as you recently wrote about your gut auguring a victory by Donald Trump. Guts do not remain the same. Has yours?
Nate Silver: Well, the whole point of that article — including the headline — was that I don’t think my gut is worth anything in this case. Many people interpreted it differently, as though I was revealing my super-duper secret real prediction. I knew that would happen. I don’t believe either of those will help you make a better prediction, as you will mostly be responding to your gut feeling and Republicans are more likely to be confident than you are.
People get very frustrated if I won’t tell them who I think would win. I don’t feel confident that we know how this will go given the available data We all want certainty and it is understandable. People want to be prepared for an outcome. They don’t like surprises. And I’m sorry to say, you should continue to mentally and emotionally prepare for a wide range of outcomes.
US President Donald Trump, in a recent interview, predicted that Kamala Harris would defeat him in the US Presidential elections. “It’d be nice if the margin for Harris in Donald Trump’s hometown was a super blowout. I don’t know what to think about the Selzer poll in Iowa,” he said. “I don’t feel confident that we know how this will go,” he added.