It was the hottest year on record
The Met Office forecasts for 2024: More extreme events in the U.S. during the last ten years than in the past two decades
Global temperatures this month, particularly in the oceans, are well above average for the time of year. The current El Nio weather pattern is entering its second year, which can be a sign that global warming is going to get worse. These and other factors suggest that 2024 could see even more extreme weather and climate impacts than 2023, as humans continue to pour heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The global average includes temperatures measured throughout the year over both land and oceans, and changes are usually an order of magnitude smaller.
While the U.S. was spared major hurricane damage last year, climate-driven storms still caused tens of billions of dollars in damage and killed dozens of people in China, Mexico and both northern and southern Africa.
Humans are releasing huge amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere when they burn fossil fuels. Despite efforts to curb pollution, global emissions are still rising. U.S. greenhouse gas emissions dropped by about 2% last year, a decline which remains far short of the nation’s climate targets.
Still, forecasters are confident that El Niño conditions will persist well into 2024, potentially setting up another record-breaking year for the planet.
The Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service based in Exeter, is predicting that, in 2024, there is a good chance of the global average surface temperature passing the 1.5 °C mark. The Met Office’s analysis says that in 2023 it will be 1.36 C above the pre-industrial average. “It is the first time we are forecasting” this, says Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office who led the work. If you pass 1.5 C for one year, it doesn’t mean that the Paris agreement has been violated, but researchers say that it would have to be surpassed for decades to have formally broken the limit.
Tereza Cavazos is a Climate scientist at the Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada in Mexico. It is not necessary to wait 15 or 20 years to see the changes that were expected.
It was not the only factor that contributed to the extreme events in 2023. The all-time high emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, as well as the warm oceans of the past, were reported in the year 2000. Also, the eruption of a volcano in Tonga which threw water into the atmosphere, was a factor. Changes to maritime shipping regulations in 2020 that reduce the amount of sulfur dioxide pollution is part of the reason that the climate can’t be cooling.
Heatwaves also baked many parts of the world, with China recording its highest temperature ever and Phoenix, Arizona, experiencing 31 consecutive days at 43 °C (110 °F) or above. In Mexico, more than 200 people died in a heatwave in July, and a three-year drought in East Africa, exacerbated by climate change, has led to food insecurity and refugee movements.
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The UK’s Met Office has predicted that there is a good chance of the average global surface temperature passing the 1.5C mark in 2024. “It is the first time we are forecasting” this, said Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office who led the work. The warmest year on record in the world so far was recorded in June.